Today marks the end of the most exciting and unpredictable Oscar season I’ve seen since I first started following them. Here are my final predictions, which, given said unpredictability, I’m not as sure about as I typically am. I’ve gone 24 for 24 once (2008), but I’m generally close.
Gravity has a lot of momentum, so this one is going to be close, but I’ve been predicting 12 Years since October…so why stop now. I think it’s going to get more #1 votes on the ballots, and be viewed as the more ‘important’ film…Don’t be surprised if 12 Years goes home with Best Picture and only one or two more awards. Evidence of a very competetive year.
Alfonso Cuaron- Gravity (Spoiler, Steve McQueen- 12 Years a Slave)
Cuaron has won nearly all the precursors this season, and his is such an undeniably directoral achievement, it seems unlikely he’ll miss. That being said, Picture/Director splits don’t happen often, and we already had one last year. It’s been sixty something years since we had two in a row. McQueen could very well still take this. Sidney Portier is presenting the Award, it seems, and as this year marks the 50th Anniversary of him being the first black actor to win an Oscar, it seems like AMPAS could be setting him up for a classic Oscar moment of awarding the first black director prize.
Matthew McConaughey- Dallas Buyers Club (Spoiler, Chiwetel Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave)
McConaughey’s got a lot of momentum. He’s in a baity role, he’s a well liked actor in the middle of an amazing career turn around, and he’s won everything. I think he as this. If they REALLY like 12 Years, though, and want to give it something alongside Best Picture, we say see Ejiofor upset.
Oh and MAYBE DiCaprio takes it (It’s the guy’s 5th nomination, I mean come on…)
Cate Blanchett- Blue Jasmine (Spoiler, jokes…nobody else is taking this)
This woman is a freakin Awards juggernaut this season. Nobody else is taking this award. She has been part of one of the biggest Oscar season sweeps in memory. If ANYONE upset, it would be Amy Adams for American Hustle…dear god. If that happened, that would be one of the biggest Oscar upsets in history.
Best Supporting Actor:
Jared Leto- Dallas Buyers Club (Spoiler, Barkhad Abdi- Captain Phillips)
This is Leto’s. I just don’t see anyone else taking it. He’s in such a baity part, and he made an incredible physical transformation. As one voter put it, “the only way Leto could have been more certain to win is if he played the same character, but during the Holocaust”
Best Supporting Actress:
Lupita Nyong’o- 12 Years a Slave (Spoiler, Jennifer Lawrence- American Hustle)
This is going to be a tight one. They have both won a similar number of Awards, and it seems like American Hustle needs to take SOMETHING, but Lawrence won last year…I just don’t see her going two in a row so young. Also, they’ll want to give 12 Years SOMETHING to back up its Best Picture win. Lupita has been campaigning her butt off as well. I really think she’s got this.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
12 Years a Slave (Spoiler, Philomena)
Unless they really end up hating 12 Years a Slave, this one should be locked up.
Best Original Screenplay:
Her (Spoiler, American Hustle)
This is one of the tightest races of the season right here. American Hustle could VERY easily take this, especially if Lawrence does not win, because AMPAS may want to give it something. No SAG Best Ensemble award winner has gone home empty handed since the first year of the Awards’ creation, so by not winning something, Hustle would be defying statistics. That being said, Her has won the Globe, the WGA, and the Critics Choice for its screenplay, and I’ve heard that even voter’s who weren’t fans were impressed by its ‘originality.’ My heart tells me to stick with her.
I don’t need to even say anything here. I mean, really.
Captain Phillips (Spoiler, Gravity)
This is SUCH a close race. There is no clear frontrunner here. The editors in Hollywood seem to prefer Phillips, but overall voters may give this to Gravity as part of a tech sweep. Both are expertly paced. I think Phillips takes this though. It has the more ‘obvious’ editing.
Best Original Score:
Gravity (Spoiler: Philomena)
I reaaaally think Gravity has this. The score is loud and memorable, and helped the film’s emotional scenes and suspense scenes wonderfully.
Best Production Design:
The Great Gatsby (Spoiler: 12 Years a Slave)
This is a tough one. Gatsby’s sets are loud and obvious (and excellent), but it does seem odd to picture the film taking home two awards tonight over films with far better reviews. Alice in Wonderland did it in 2010 though. 12 Years could easily take this if they try to give it something to beef up its awards tally. Lincoln did that last year, randomly winning here for subtle sets in a film AMPAS generally liked a lot.
Best Costume Design:
The Great Gatsby (Spoiler: American Hustle)
Another tough one. I think Gatsby takes this. It’s costumes are undeniable. They may go for the hilarious flash and accuracy of Hustle, depending on how much they like the film though.
Best Visual Effects:
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Dallas Buyers Club (Spoiler, Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa)
Dallas Buyers Club supposedly only had a makeup budget of $250. That story, alongside the fact that the Academy probably doesn’t want to give an Oscar to a Jackass film means it probably has this one wrapped up.
Best Sound Mixing:
Best Sound Editing:
Best Original Song:
Let It Go- Frozen (Spoiler, Happy- Despicable Me 2)
Let It Go seemed like it would be taking this in a cakewalk. Happy’s eleventh hour success might be cause for a surprise upset though.
Best Animated Film:
Frozen (Spoiler, The Wind Rises)
Best Foreign Film:
The Great Beauty (Spoiler, The Hunt)
20 Feet From Stardom (Spoiler, The Act of Killing)
Best Animated Short:
Get a Horse
Best Live Action Short:
Helium (Spoiler, The Voorman Problem)
Best Documentary Short:
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life